What Businesses Can Do to Prepare for Hurricane Season 2026 and Understand Their Business Interruption Coverage

Forecasts call for a quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but catastrophic risk remains elevated. Growing concentrations of exposed assets, ongoing heat anomalies, and active conditions in the Pacific basin continue to create a challenging risk environment for insurers and brokers.

Early forecasts suggested the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would be less active than in 2025 and could trend below average overall. Still, mixed signals from Atlantic sea surface temperatures highlight the limitations of seasonal forecasting, and history shows that even relatively quiet seasons can generate substantial losses.

Researchers at Colorado State University in July downgraded their forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing increased confidence that moderate El Niño conditions will strengthen into a strong El Niño during the peak of the season.

The Impact of El Niño Conditions

The primary driver of 2026’s subdued Atlantic outlook is a developing, moderate to strong El Niño, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) giving an 82 percent chance of persisting through summer. El Niño tends to:

• increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, disrupting storm formation
• support enhanced activity in the eastern and central Pacific

The researchers predict:

• eight to fourteen named storms
• three to six storms will reach hurricane strength
• one to three storms will become major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, or 5)

Direct tropical cyclone landfalls are rare along the US West Coast, but storm remnants can still cause flash floods, mudslides, and debris flows.

In contrast to El Niño’s tendency to reduce Atlantic storm activity, this reflects the interconnected nature of global weather patterns. NOAA stresses that landfalls cannot be forecast months in advance, and any season can still result in significant losses.