BRG Energy Economic Horizons
Quantitative and qualitative analysis designed to highlight salient US and global market and pricing trends
US and Global Market and Pricing Trends
Energy Economic Horizons is a quarterly client publication of BRG’s Energy & Climate practice that provides quantitative and qualitative analysis designed to highlight salient US and global market and pricing trends relevant to clean fuels, power, and renewable energy.
Q2 2026 The Impact of the War with Iran on Global Gas Markets
The war with Iran caught the world by surprise earlier this year, and few anticipated it would continue the way that it has. Energy markets have been severely impacted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and loss of supplies from Iran, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In this update, we assess the sustained impact the Iran conflict could have on global gas markets. Using LNG Horizon, our model of global gas markets, we analyzed a potential scenario for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and gradual resumption of Qatar and UAE LNG production and exports.
Q1 2026
Plugging the Gap: How US Well Abandonment Could Become the Next Carbon Investment Frontier
The energy transition conversation often focuses on emerging technologies (e.g., hydrogen, carbon capture, next-generation renewables) while paying less attention to the legacy infrastructure from more than a century of hydrocarbon development. An immediate emissions-reduction opportunity may lie not in building new systems but rather addressing the millions of aging oil and gas wells already in the ground.
Inactive, abandoned, and orphaned wells remain scattered across the United States. Long treated primarily as environmental liabilities, these wells are now recognized increasingly as a diffuse but meaningful source of methane emissions and, under emerging carbon-market frameworks, a potential source of investable methane-abatement projects.
Previous Issues
LNG Supply Boom Launches a New Era for LNG Markets
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry is entering a major supply expansion led by the United States and Qatar, with liquefaction capacity expected to grow nearly 40 percent by the early 2030s. While this surge is expanding the overall market, it is also accelerating LNG’s shift toward a more flexible and commoditized pricing structure. Much new capacity is already under construction, often contracted by aggregators and traders rather than end users, raising the risk of oversupply if demand does not keep pace. This could pressure prices, increase short-term trading, and possibly lead to US cargo cancellations. As the swing producer, US LNG will likely drive global prices, and major price indices will likely move in closer correlation.
Therefore, the key question is: where will this new LNG be absorbed?
Closing the Books on Russian Gas
European Union (EU) energy secretaries gathered in Luxembourg on October 20 to discuss a legislative proposal for a ban on all energy imports (including natural gas) originating from Russia, to be phased in until January 2028. In a historic vote, member–states approved the ban, even if landlocked Hungary and Slovakia, which voted against the proposal, reportedly will be exempt. Lawmakers in the European Parliament are expected to adopt the law before the end of the year. While a delegation from Russia recently announced a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China about possible construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, EU leaders are trying to end all energy imports from Russia—a cornerstone of European manufacturing, power generation, and heating and cooking for over half a century.
Evidently, important geopolitical questions are linked to Europe’s transition away from its historically leading energy supplier. But what about the market impacts of a ban on imports of natural gas from Russia? Not long ago, interruptions in the supply of natural gas could be felt dramatically (if unevenly) across the European continent. Today, Europe’s natural gas market is more integrated than ever, as are markets globally, due to maturation of the market for liquefied natural gas (LNG). EU offtakers have already significantly reduced imports from the Russian Federation following the second outbreak of the war in Ukraine and Gazprom’s decision to halt exports of natural gas to northwestern Europe.
Drastic market intervention by banning a specific source of supply can have profound and unexpected consequences. Our LNG Horizon model, which projects global gas prices, production, and flows across all regional markets and international LNG markets, offers four key insights.
ThinkSet | Climate Crossroads: Navigating the Energy Transition
As the global drive to reach net-zero emissions goals rapidly intensifies—through waves of new policy, investment, and innovation—it can be tempting and is common to think of the energy transition as a zero-sum game between winners and losers.
We see it everywhere: in the idea that China’s progress on solar panels and electric vehicles is America and Europe’s loss; that the Inflation Reduction Act’s domestic subsidies are Europe and Asia’s loss; that the sustained production of natural gas is a loss for renewable energy sources.
As business leaders around the world assess where they stand in their clean energy journeys, BRG’s ThinkSet magazine pushes past zero-sum thinking to help inform decision-making in the critical years to come.
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The BRG Energy & Climate team is focused on business, regulatory, and dispute resolution challenges associated with rapid decarbonization and the transformation of energy use across the energy, industrial, and transportation sectors.