LNG Competition in Europe: How Could Russia Stay Relevant?
Christopher Goncalves comments on natural gas and LNG import market growth, economic and political headwinds, and Russia’s potential strategic priorities.
In the past, Russia has sought to maintain a moderate share of the EU natural gas market to mitigate the risk that Russian gas will compete with Russian gas in the European markets, and thereby erode its value. As the EU market liberalization has been implemented and deepened, hub market trading has increased and contract destination clauses have been removed. As a result, European buyers of Russian gas can freely resell and trade that gas in the market and on the hubs. Therefore, increasing the market share of Russian gas supplies would run the risk of oversupplying the market and reducing the value of Russian gas.